Lees Meer, The sensitivity of central banks to currency appreciation, discussions of the Fed’s new average inflation targeting framework, and Brexit were the main themes that markets latched onto this week. Lees Meer, While our medium-term forecast of sustained USD depreciation remains intact, the decline in the dollar in December has led us to revise our near-term forecasts to factor in a weaker dollar heading into January 2021. impressum: copyright kraftwerk / parlophone records ltd. a warner music group company. The dollar spent much of the day in the green but ultimately ended up marginally lower upon closing. Alternatively, the Withdrawal Agreement could fail to make it past lawmakers for the fourth time this year. However, forecasts for 2021 were solidly downgraded, due to the MPC now assuming a greater degree of “scarring” to consumer behaviour and productivity. Lees Meer, The tentative pricing likely reflects the April preliminary PMIs that were set to be released later on in the morning. DISCLAIMER: This information has been prepared by Monex Europe Limited, an execution-only service provider. Lees Meer, Sterling began yesterday with an extension of its sell-off from Monday, reaching fresh lows in the morning, but then stabilised and managed to end the day marginally higher against the dollar and euro. Lees Meer, The single currency is slightly trending upwards from the policy signal provided by the central bank, while it also awaits the joint recovery fund and MFF to be agreed by EU leaders at some point this summer. Since then, last night’s broad US dollar weakness has seen the pound extend its gains. After looking through most of the near-term risks in December and the first week of January, tighter lockdown measures and concerns over vaccine efficacy and distribution thrust the previous risk environment into a bit of a tailspin. Dezember 2011 verstorbenen Vorgängers Kim Jong-il und dessen dritter Ehefrau Ko Yong-hi. Maintaining the topic of revolts, this morning Jeremy Corbyn was told to back a second referendum over May’s deal or face further defectors to The Independent Group. Legislation proposed by Conservative Dominic Grieve and Labour’s Margaret Beckett aims to block off funding for Whitehall departments Lees Meer, Last week’s price action was dominated by speculation over global policy rates following a dovish turn by the Federal Reserve. Several themes will be interesting, even if no policy change is forthcoming: Lees Meer, The confusing subtleties of data releases during lockdown and the shift to alternative data, the Fed’s reluctance to begin yield curve controls, Canada’s upcoming fiscal deficit projections and labour market release, and finally inflation data in the EM space. Lees Meer, Sterling starts the week marginally lower after Johnson’s deal suffers another blow. The spin from both sides remained intense all day but turned distinctly positive in the evening, and a deal is now expected to be announced imminently. Lees Meer, ECB President Mario Draghi takes to the stage for the last time this afternoon before handing over the keys to the office to former IMF chief Christine Lagarde. Lees Meer, Chinese authorities entered the US consulate in Chengdu this morning after ordering the facility to be vacated in retaliation for the forced closure of the Chinese consulate in Houston last week, marking a rise in US-Sino tensions. Ten opzichte van de euro sterkte het pond met 1% aan: iets meer dan in GBPUSD, omdat dollarsterkte in dat laatste paar ook een rol heeft gespeeld vandaag. The median consensus remains overly bearish on the currency, which has a large reserve of upside factors it can tap into. The Russian defence system is expected to be delivered in July, and recent rhetoric by Turkish officials suggests that the $2.5bn deal between Turkey and Russia will not be reversed regardless of the level of sanctions imposed by the US. Lees Meer, The euro managed to resist further depreciation against the greenback yesterday, while global currencies traded with a risk-off tone and the greenback advanced elsewhere. At March’s extraordinary meeting on the 19th, the main objective was to restore functioning in UK financial markets, especially gilts, and preventing further tightening in financial conditions. Welke munt profiteert van een terughoudende Federal Reserve en welke krijgt juist de wind in de zeilen als de Fed verzuimt de rente te verlagen? This morning's eurozone industrial output data from February included a sharp contraction of 1.9% on a year-on-year basis and a 0.1% contraction month-on-month, with a decrease in capital and durable goods causing much of the slump. GBP is currently taking this news positively as it would diminish the chance of the UK crashing out of the European Union on the 29th of March. Chart: US-CA 2-year yield spread points to a loonie rally should the BoC remain on hold and risk appetite improve Lees Meer, Following an underwhelming State of the Nation Address by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa two weeks ago, market participants turn their eye to Finance Minister Tito Mboweni’s medium-term budget announcement on Wednesday 26th. The rest of the Spanish population remains in lockdown. Lees Meer, The Mexican peso outperformed in the first month of 2020, being one of the only four currencies in the EM space with positive spot returns against the dollar. Compared to the Fed, markets aren’t pricing much action from the BoE – yet Lees Meer, If May’s boisterous reception in the commons and tweets from Tory MPs are to be believed, May is more likely to survive tonight’s vote than not. Lees Meer, The euro is under pressure again this morning after a dismal print for Germany’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index. This is not an ordinary situation. While the euro area economy remains underpinned by resilient domestic demand from the strongest labor market since the financial crisis, deteriorating external demand continues to drag on growth. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Lees Meer, Emerging Markets rallied against the US dollar as a whole yesterday as markets anticipate further dovish tones from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. Nothing in this material is, or should be considered to be, financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. Lees Meer, Sterling was by far the best performer against the US dollar last week, also reaching its highest level against the euro since 2017. Norges Bank stated earlier it aims to keep rates on hold until the second half of 2022. Lees Meer, The dollar has seen mixed performance so far this week, amid a febrile mix of domestic US Covid news, Fed minutes, and increasing prospects of renewed geopolitical turmoil. WTI crude prices break the $30pb mark for the first time in one month in thinner trade volumes Susan Jackson & The Chateau De La Carriere; Technology. In practice, the Fed could link changes in policy to a robust, sustained convergence of inflation to a level that would threaten even the Fed’s looser average inflation target. The Norwegian economy has been gradually reopening as lockdown measures were scaled back starting April 20. The weakness makes sense in the wider context of Japan’s macro-economy. Lees Meer, GBP In a novel change for markets, this morning’s political developments have seen sterling climb up a cliff instead of falling off one. Given the Government’s comfortable working majority of above 80, this seems like a stretch – particularly when the votes of the Northern Irish DUP are considered. Just after lunchtime, the South African Reserve Bank will be in focus, with expectations suggesting another 25bps cut is incoming to help the economic recovery as fiscal policy is constrained and lockdown measures remained in play for longer than expected. The two countries have lead opposing positions on the EU joint policy response to the pandemic, with Germany largely refraining from the issuance of collective “coronabonds” proposed by France. Lees Meer, Last week’s UK data and MPC commentary overwhelmingly pointed towards a rate cut from the Bank of England. Lees Meer, The dollar showed a decent bid in the afternoon of yesterday’s trading session as the global risk environment remains tentative. Lees Meer, The pressure the single currency is notable in this morning’s session, with EURUSD sitting 0.25% lower on the day despite commentary from avid ECB hawk Jens Weidmann, who is suggesting exit plans from the ECB’s €1.35trn bond buying programme, while France unveiled its €100bn stimulus plan. Simon Harvey, FX Market Analyst Lees Meer, Sterling is outperforming in the G10 space this morning, trading some 0.4% higher against the dollar. Lees Meer, Headline US GDP growth has printed at a better than expected 1.9% seasonally adjusted annualised rate. Lees Meer, Sterling is the currency catching everyone's eyes in FX markets this morning as headlines fly in that Brexit talks haven’t yielded the progress that many believed they had back on Friday, with The Sun newspaper reporting that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is set to walk away from negotiations later this morning. Both Trump and President Xi are expected to hold an “extended meeting” after dialogue broke down and further tariffs were levied back on May 10th. Mon ex' est un bouffon .. 667 likes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_DtmnKQ1yFo Lees Meer, Boris Johnson, Iain Duncan-Smith and Jacob Rees-Mogg all aired their support for the deal after May offered to step down should the UK leave with a deal in place at the next deadline. Ultimately, this weighed on the greenback despite it being a driver of USD outperformance earlier in the day. In addition, the candidate has also been reportedly linked to the importance of the FX rate as a crisis management tool. Lees Meer, The dollar has been regaining ground since yesterday amid concerns that President-elect Joe Biden’s $1.9tn stimulus plan may fail to win broad-based support, as Republican opposition is possible over the big-ticket spending. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government and police insiders say deadly clashes over aboriginal groups' claims to land in Oka, Quebec, in 1990 and Ipperwash, Ontario, in 1995, as well as other violent confrontations, have changed their way of operating. In the immediate future, the CDU must choose a party leader and a candidate for the Chancellorship. Lees Meer, The dollar traded with a negative correlation to risk appetite in general and US equities, in particular yesterday, with the decisive move lower in the greenback happening as US equities rallied after the Federal Reserve said it would commence corporate debt purchases. Fears were elevated that the inflation print could shoot higher just months before base effects were likely to see inflation rise above the Fed’s 2% target. Meanwhile, Jeremy Corbyn announced Labour’s official stance to back a referendum should the meaningful vote fail. Lees Meer, The dollar is trading lower at the margin overnight, with the G10 currencies following a pattern consistent with an improvement in risk appetite. La Haye-du-Puits ist eine Ortschaft und eine ehemalige französische Gemeinde mit 1.468 Einwohnern (Stand 1. Lees Meer, The dollar continues to trade weaker in today’s session despite news of rising US-Sino tensions after the US imposed restrictions on semiconductor sales to Chinese telecommunications company Huawei. Testifying to lawmakers, Powell said that uncertainties around global growth were weighing on the US economy Lees Meer, The South African economy hasn’t shown signs of a vigorous rebound in activity following the largest economic contraction in a decade in the first quarter of 2019, with the latest data releases pointing to 0.5% GDP growth for the year. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UpH65Mb2-aY Lees Meer, Recession signals began to turn alarmingly amber, with the German bond curve reaching its flattest state since the 2008 recession. The timing of the easing of containment measures will be key in determining the recovery path. Lees Meer, Last night’s meeting minutes painted a picture of an FOMC that was clearly behind the curve and attempting to work out how deep its current cutting cycle is likely to be, amid a darkening economic outlook. Closer. Lees Meer, On Friday Boris Johnson appeared to say the UK was walking away from trade talks with the EU, although the Prime Minister tried to blame the EU for the impasse in trade talks. Lees Meer, Unless May manages to achieve some type of breakthrough in the near future, a likely Conservative Party revolt would see her ousted and replaced, possibly by a Eurosceptic such as Boris Johnson - a prospect that would likely see further sterling weakness due to the increased chances of a no-deal Brexit in October. Lees Meer, The main trigger for markets moving out of the greenback and into other currencies comes from improved market confidence, after US President Donald Trump’s threats to China did not strike to the degree that markets had feared earlier last week. The concern is what the longer-term impact to the economy is and to measure that, and in turn the effectiveness of the stimulus measures to counteract it, markets will need to see the noise around the labour market data to subside. The Fed’s current “whatever it takes” approach to asset purchases gives it great flexibility – this may be changed to a regular monthly pace that is announced ahead of time as the US recovery continues. With Canada’s economy exposed to external growth conditions, data for February will prove key in assessing the impact the coronavirus had on domestic activity, and therefore predicting the next steps taken by the BoC. Lees Meer, People familiar with the Trump administration announced yesterday that the US are unlikely to reduce the pre-existing tariffs levied on China, until after the November election subject to the conditionalities of the phase one deal being met. We expect BoC policy to follow a similar pattern to that of 2019 – dovish tones without a material adjustment. Lagarde’s comments would normally have suggested that the central bank is searching for a path to normalization. The impact will be supportive of the economy, especially the retail sector given the loan support, and reiterates the global narrative that central banks will continue to deploy all tools at the zero lower bound to provide ample liquidity to support the economy. Lees Meer, The US dollar DXY index rallied 0.3% yesterday, with the greenback making the most ground against the Scandies and Japanese yen. Lees Meer, White smoke rose from Brussels and Monday yesterday as Boris Johnson and Michel Barnier announced that a deal for an orderly withdrawal from the EU had been reached. As icing on the cake, the central bank extended the program by 9 months, which is 3 months more than what median expectations foresaw. Lees Meer, With China’s Q2 GDP outstripping expectations by coming in at 3.2% YoY vs expectations of a 2.4% rebound, one would expect the dollar to be weakening at the margin in this morning’s trading session as risk appetite is supported. However, our adjustment for a weaker krona is lower than our euro adjustment, ultimately leading to a downwards revision in EURSEK. New member “dot plot” projections will be issued, providing a related insight into members’ opinions. Lees Meer, News from Westminster that the Withdrawal Agreement will be put to a vote in the Commons at the beginning of June has brought the Brexit headache back for those investing in British assets. Lees Meer, The dollar strengthened overnight, after the widely traded West Texas Intermediate benchmark for crude oil delivery saw astonishing declines in prices for delivery next month. Lees Meer, The German economy shrank by 10.1% in Q2 on a quarterly basis, one percentage point deeper than the consensus forecast supplied to Bloomberg. Il/elle sera bien plus impressionné(e) si vous changez sans avoir eu le détail de ses reproches justifiant une rupture amoureuse auparavant. However, the European session could open quite choppy given the limited liquidity in markets and expectations that Italy could approve Mario Draghi as the next Prime Minister over the weekend. With an estimated 12 million workers facing an unemployment cliff on December 26th according to The Century Foundation, markets will keep a close eye on developments in Washington up until Christmas. Lees Meer, GBP Sterling strengthened against USD like most of its peers yesterday, but was towards the bottom of the group of G10 currencies. Lees Meer, Sterling has fallen to the lowest level against the US dollar since 1985 amid a global dollar liquidity shortage that has seen the greenback run rampant against all major currencies. 1:27 . Lees Meer, The Norwegian krone has sold off over 6% against the US dollar since the start of the year predominantly due to a deterioration in the external climate. Domestic opposition to the Bill escalated at the end of this week. De deal is echter nog verre van rond, met nog twee vervaarlijk uitziende beren op de weg; een mogelijke motie van wantrouwen tegen May en of de deal wel langs de Britse tweede kamer (House of Commons) komt. Lex qui fuit sur Facebook est un ex qui a les fesses entre deux chaises partagé entre léven… Ook zei BoE Gouverneur Mark Carney tijdens de laatste BoE persconferentie vrij expliciet dat de BoE verwacht dat verdere renteverhogingen nodig zullen zijn om de inflatiedoelen te halen. The market reaction of this potential first step towards atonement is muted, however, as the measures are still to be implemented later. Gaat de Fed meebuigen met de marktverwachtingen of breken uiteindelijk investeerders die tegen de Fed wedden? Lees Meer, China took aggressive measures to control the outbreak in its earlier stages, and the report of new cases sparked fears of a second Covid-19 wave in other countries and dampened prospects for a V-shaped economic recovery in the US. FOMC and ECB minutes show central banks divided and behind the curve, USD stays strong despite Powell solidifying rate cut bet, Under pressure ft Jerome Powell and the greenback, US economy and trade talks in focus this week, Greenback takes another leg lower on poor ISM reading, Dollar plunges with ISM as growth fears re-emerge, ISM number puts USD under pressure as more Fed cuts eyed, Greenback firms on month/ quarter-end flows, Euro hits a 2-year low as fiscal stimulus measures announced, Markets shift after USD surges on China optimism, A call to Ukraine puts impeachment on the table, Sterling shrugs off supreme court as still a lot to play for, Supreme Court ruling dominates sterling news flow, Euro kicked in the teeth as German economy contracts, Sterling hits highs following Juncker optimism, Dollar firms as Fed under delivers on expectations, Short-term USD liquidity dominated market focus yesterday, US dollar continues to surge ahead of Fed, Oil rallies most since 1988 – markets await US supply response, Draghi exits ECB with a bang as EURUSD climbs higher, EUR dips below 1.10 ahead of ECB decision, Markets sit flat as Scandies lead sell-off, Current EURJPY Strength Is Based On Market Risk Sentiment, Draghi’s final ECB meeting dominates this week’s events, USD looks to jobs data amid fears of a recession, Sterling sits still in face of incoming election, La libra indecisa sobre las siguientes jugadas de Boris Johnson, What tonight’s vote – and a general election – means for sterling, Boris may have Labour work for him – sterling expects extra volatility, This greenback ain’t scared by a little yield inversion, Dismal German data may reveal diamonds in the dirt, EU hits ball into Boris’s court, sterling rallies. Lees Meer, Sterling is trading higher this morning, despite a surprise 50 basis point rate cut from the Bank of England. Risks are currently tilted to further sterling depreciation, regardless of whether the Withdrawal Agreement is ratified or not. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by Monex Europe Limited or the author that any particular transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Partage. The material is for general information purposes only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is, or should be considered to be, financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. Lees Meer, Recent US-Iran tensions have somewhat eased in financial markets, despite headlines this morning suggesting that a Tehran missile could have been responsible for the Ukrainian plane crash last Wednesday. Author: Olivia Alvarez Mendez, FX Market Analyst at Monex Europe in Madrid. Lees Meer, Trump’s threat of new tariffs on China throws a spanner in the works for both antipodean central banks, which will issue rate decisions this week Lees Meer, This Friday’s first look at Q2 GDP will be only mildly relevant for sterling, after the BoE made it clear that it would not be doing any “insurance cuts” Lees Meer, The People’s Bank of China set a soft fix for the onshore yuan this morning which allowed the pressure of the offshore traded yuan to filter into local markets Lees Meer, Today, investors will be awaiting Donald Trump’s awakening to Twitter with the Chinese yuan breaking the 7.00 level. Lees Meer, This morning’s UK GDP release saw the economy contract by 2.6% in November as the government imposed a four-week national lockdown on November 4th, with other devolved governments tightening measures at the margin also. Lees Meer, Last week, the single currency breached its 33-month low against the US dollar due to weak economic data and coronavirus fears. EURUSD saw a modest drop around the time of the release, but the many different factors in play at the moment make it nearly impossible to pinpoint the price action down to one event. Lees Meer, The RBNZ faces a finely balanced decision this week, with domestic data offering both positive and negative surprises. Lees Meer, The Trump administration stated yesterday that it can no longer certify that Hong Kong is politically autonomous from China, a decision that may have profound consequences for the city’s trade status. Fed Preview: Fed versus markten, wie buigt? Lees Meer, The US dollar rolled over yesterday, selling off broadly as a crucial business survey crashed to its lowest level in a decade on Monday. Lees Meer, A positive rebound in the global backdrop for the second half of the year, along with an expected domestic growth pick-up, should underpin the currency rally, while the USD strength gradually fades. Lees Meer, After trading in a remarkably tight range last week, USDCAD extends to the upside as data shows Canada’s economy didn’t expand in July. DISCLAIMER: This information has been prepared by Monex Europe Limited, an execution-only service provider. Options range from continuity candidates such as Armin Laschet, to potentially more conservative politicians such as Friedrich Merz. Lassé de vous avoir trop vu et de vous avoir trop répété que rien nétait possible entre vous, il préfère fuir voire vous ignorer. This is supposedly just the tip of the iceberg. The likeliest outcome is further formalisation of the Fed’s shift away from viewing maximum employment as a constraint that will lead to rate hikes. Congress reported in a joint statement that yesterday’s White House meeting was productive.
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